05-Year Mobile Market Forecast

Sensor Tower has recently shown on the report that the stores will generate a combined $102 billion in gross consumer spend during 2020, growing by about 20 percent year-over-year despite the impact of COVID-19 on global economies.

Consumer spending in mobile apps through Apple’s App Store and Google Play will total close to $171 billion globally in 2024, double the amount spent in 2019, according to forecasting based on Sensor Tower Store Intelligence data.

Sensor Tower is a popular analytics platform for tech developers and investors. Sensor Tower’s product suite includes: Top Charts, App Intelligence, Store Intelligence, Ad Intelligence, and Usage Intelligence.

Their team has recently shown on the report that the stores will generate a combined $102 billion in gross consumer spend during 2020, growing by about 20 percent year-over-year despite the impact of COVID-19 on global economies.

Image: Sensor Tower

Explore the forecast of Mobile Market from 2020 – 2024 below:

Image: Sensor Tower
Image: Sensor Tower
Image: Sensor Tower

The ranking among the top five revenue generating countries for Apple’s App Store will remain unchanged through 2024. All of these countries are projected for a CAGR greater than 10 percent, with the highest expected in Great Britain at 17.8 percent. 

After a few years of declining spending, particularly in mobile games, revenue growth in South Korea took off in the second half of 2019 and has continued into 2020. It is expected to pass Australia and Germany in 2020 and hold that position through 2024, making it increasingly attractive to publishers.

Similar to the App Store, the order among the top five countries on Google Play is not expected to change by 2024. The U.S., Japan, and Taiwan are among the top five countries by revenue on both platforms. 

Brazil, the No. 2 country by Google Play downloads in 2019, ranked only No. 10 by revenue. This user base has it in a strong position to grow, with its projected CAGR of 22 percent outpacing that of Canada (18 percent) and Australia (16 percent).

Image: Sensor Tower
Image: Sensor Tower

Early indications suggest that China will have see a massive increase in downloads in 2020, with categories including Games and Education receiving large boosts during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, downloads during the few years before had been affected by government regulatory practices. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has seen steady growth and will also experience a spike in installs in 2020 due to COVID-19. After a year-over-year increase of 27 percent in 2020, growth is expected to return back towards pre-2020 levels, settling around 7 percent annually between 2021 and 2024.

Image: Sensor Tower

India continues to dominate on Google Play. While its year-over-year growth rate dropped from 43 percent in 2018 to 12 percent in 2019, the recent success of hyper-casual games will help propel growth into 2020. 

As of 2017, the U.S. had 1.7 billion more downloads than Indonesia. Indonesia managed to surpass the U.S. in 2019 and is expected to have 70 percent more downloads by 2024, increasing its appeal to publishers

In 2024, more than half of App Store revenue is expected to come from nongame apps, with the other 51 percent from mobile games. Gaming’s share of revenue has decreased each year since 2016, from 82 percent in 2016 to 68 percent in 2019. 

Revenue from the Entertainment, Photo & Video, and Social Networking categories is expected to grow by more than 230 percent combined between 2019 and 2024 and will account for more than a quarter of App Store revenue in 2024. Top apps in these categories primarily rely on subscriptions for their monetization

Image: Sensor Tower

Similar to the App Store, mobile gaming’s share of revenue on Google Play has fallen due to rapidly increasing revenue for nongame apps on both stores. 

Entertainment and Social apps will each account for 3 to 4 percent of Google Play revenue by 2024, up from approximately 2 percent in 2019.

Image: Sensor Tower

Apps provided solutions for consumers adjusting to a new status quo during the COVID-19 outbreak. For example, video conferencing and grocery delivery apps became necessary for those required to shelter at home. A large portion of the install spike associated with this is expected to be temporary, as consumers eventually acquire all the apps they need for their new circumstances.

This necessity for consumers to download additional apps also reflects a persistent shift towards mobile

Source: Sensor Tower Document

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